Part 1: Population Characteristics
Summary:
- As at June 2006, women comprised 50.2% of the population.
- Life expectancy at birth has increased over the last 100 years for men and women, but on average, women live for longer than men. However, the gap between male and female longevity is decreasing.
- On average, Australian women are older than men and the proportion of the female population aged 65 and over is higher than that of males.
- Net overseas migration adds more men than women each year to the population, but it has little effect on the sex ratio or ageing of the population.
- Australia's fertility rate has been below the replacement level (2.1 babies per woman) since the late 1970s. The total fertility rate currently stands at 1.81.
- The fertility rate has gradually increased since 2001.
- Childbearing is increasingly being delayed.
- Continued low fertility and delayed childbearing may be related to increases in the age at which people marry and a decline in marriage rates.
In this part:
Population size and structure
Population size
The size of Australia's population has changed over the last century. In 1901 Australia's population was 3,788,123 and there were 110 men to 100 women.1 As at 30 June 2006 Australia's resident population was estimated at 20,605,5002 and women comprised the majority (50.2%) of the population (10,348,070).
At the time of the 2001 Census, the size of the resident Indigenous population was estimated at 458,520. Women accounted for 50.4% of the total Indigenous population.3
In 1901, 22.9% of the population was born overseas. By 2001, this had increased to 28.2% of the population and approximately one-quarter of Australian women were born overseas.4 Figure 1.1 shows that the largest proportion of women born overseas came from the United Kingdom (25%). This is almost three times the proportion of women who arrived from New Zealand, and nearly five times the proportion of women who settled here from Italy.
Population structure
Age structure
A major trend in Australia over the last 50 years has been the ageing of the population. Declining fertility since the 1960s has led to slow growth of the population in the younger age groups. Movement of the 'baby boomer' generation (those born between 1946 and 1960) into retirement and increased longevity have contributed to rapid growth in the proportion of the population in older age groups.
Figure 1.1: Top 10 overseas countries of birth for Australian women
The ageing trend can be measured in terms of the increase in the median age of the population and by examining the age structure of the population. Figure 1.2 shows that the median age of men and women has increased steadily over time. Prior to 1927, the median age of men was higher than the median age of women. Since 1929, the median age of women has been higher than the median age of men. In 2005, the median age for women was 37.4 years and the median age for men was 35.9 years.5
Figure 1.2: Trends in median ages of men and women, 1925–2005
On average, migrant women are older than Australian born women. In 2005 the median age of Australian overseas born women was 47.1 years.6
Figure 1.3 shows how the age structure of the population has changed since 1901. In 1901, the majority of the population was aged less than 29 years. In 2005, the majority of men and women were aged 30 years or older. In 1901, 4% of the population was aged 65 years and over,1 and this grew to 13.1% by 2005.5 However, in 2005, there were more women than men aged 65 years or over. Men aged 65 years or over accounted for 11.9% of the male population, whereas comparably aged women accounted for 14.3% of the female population. In the same year there were over twice the number of women than men aged 85 years and over.5
Figure 1.3: Proportion of population by age and sex, 1901 and 2005
The structure of the Indigenous female population differs from the non- Indigenous female population. On average, Indigenous women are younger. The median age of Indigenous women in 2001 was 21.4 years compared to 36.8 years for non-Indigenous women.7
Despite being younger on average than non-Indigenous women, Indigenous women, on average, are older than Indigenous men. The median age of Indigenous men in 2001 was 19.6 years.7
Why is the female population ageing?
Increasing life expectancy
One aspect of the ageing population is increasing life expectancy. A trend over the last century has been longer life expectancy for men and women. However, life expectancy has consistently been higher for women than for men, although the gap between male and female longevity is closing (Figure 1.4). In 2005 the life expectancy at birth for women was 83.3 years compared to 78.5 years for men.8 This means that women, on average, live for 4.8 years longer than do men.
Figure 1.4: Trends in life expectancy at birth by gender, 1961–2001
The life expectancy at birth for Indigenous women (64.8 years)8 is nearly 20 years less than the life expectancy for all Australian women. However, it is higher than the life expectancy of Indigenous men (59.4 years).
Declining fertility
Another aspect of the ageing population is declining fertility. At the beginning of the 20th century, the total fertility rate was approximately 3.5 babies per woman. Figure 1.5 shows that following a brief decline in the 1920s and 1930s, there was a large and sustained increase in Australia's total fertility rate from the end of World War II to the mid 1960s. This period has come to be known as the Baby Boom. Australia's total fertility rate peaked at 3.1 in 1947 and again in 1961 at 3.5.9 Fertility declined from the mid 1960s, with a sharp fall from 2.9 in 1971 to 1.9 in 1981, and then a gradual decrease to 1.7 in 2001. In 1977, Australia's fertility rate fell below replacement level (2.1 babies per woman) and has remained there ever since.10 Since 2001, fertility has gradually increased and, in 2005, the total fertility rate was 1.81 babies per woman, which has been the highest rate since 1995.11
Figure 1.5: Trends in Australia's total fertility rate 1925–2005
The decline in Australia's fertility was greater for Indigenous women than for all women, especially during the 1970s. In the early 1960s, the Indigenous total fertility rate was approximately 5.8 babies per woman.1 In 2005, the estimated Indigenous total fertility rate was 2.06 babies per women, which is still higher than the total fertility rate for all women.11
Delayed childbearing
The age at which women first give birth has a major impact on the overall fertility rate. Delayed childbearing reduces the total fertility rate in several ways: it shortens the number of total childbearing years; women who have children later in life tend to have fewer children; and delayed childbearing increases the risk of lifetime childlessness.
There has been a trend towards women delaying childbearing in Australia. Figure 1.6 shows that prior to the 1970s, the median age of mothers progressively decreased. Subsequent to the 1970s, the median age of mothers steadily increased, reaching a record 30.7 years in 2005.
Figure 1.6: Trends in median age of mothers, 1925–2005
For most of last century, fertility rates were highest among women aged between 25 and 29 years. In 2005, for the sixth year in a row, fertility was highest for women aged between 30 and 34 years, followed by women aged between 25 and 29 years. The number of births among women aged between 30 and 39 years has increased, whereas fertility rates for younger women (those below 30 years) have been decreasing, although this trend has slowed since 2001 (Figure 1.7).
Figure 1.7: Trends in age-specific fertility rates for Australian women, 1925–2005
Despite the increasing fertility among older women, it has not offset the decline in fertility among younger women. For example, in 1985, women aged 20–24 years and 25–29 years had 95.8 and 146.0 births per 1,000 women respectively.10 In 2005, women in these age groups had 52.9 and 103.0 births per 1,000 women respectively. Women aged between 30 and 34 years are only having 117.5 births per 1,000 women.11
The opposite trend in age-specific fertility patterns has been observed among Indigenous women. Women under 30 years of age accounted for almost threequarters of the total Indigenous fertility rate in 2005.11 In 2005 the median age of Indigenous mothers was about 6 years younger than for all mothers (24.5 years).
Childlessness
Another factor affecting declining fertility is the increasing number of women with no children. Estimates of current rates and future projections of childlessness in Australia range from 19.7% to 28%.12, 13,14,15 The proportion of women remaining childless has increased over time in each age group. For women aged 25–29 years in 1981, 35% were childless, while 59% of women of the same age in 2001 were childless. In 1981, 8% of 40-44 year old women were childless. By 2001, this had increased to 13% of women of this age.16 At the time of the 1976 Census, 4% of women who had passed common childbearing age (45–49 years old) remained childless. By 1986, the proportion had increased to 9% and, in 1996, 11% of women in this age group had not given birth to a child.17
The relationship between marriage and fertility
The findings from a recent survey on fertility decision making in Australia18 showed that declining fertility is not due to Australians not wanting children. Only 8% of women surveyed definitely wanted to remain childless. Reasons given for not wanting children included financial considerations, lifestyle choices, career and employment priorities, relationship issues, and health. Most men and women surveyed reported wanting to have children and the average ideal number of children was 2.4 for men and 2.5 for women. The 'ideal number of children' is well above the replacement level. Most men and women expected to achieve their ideal family size, but those who did not were more likely to expect to have a smaller rather than a larger family. Married people in their twenties and thirties were most likely of all respondents to want, expect and to have children. For those who were not currently in a relationship, difficulties in finding a partner was the main reason why they expected to have fewer children than they wanted. Thus, this study found a strong relationship between partnership status and fertility.
Indeed, Australian women typically do wait until marriage before having children, but this trend is slowing. Although the proportion of exnuptial births has steadily increased, especially over the last 20 years—a trend that largely reflects an increase in births to cohabiting couples—the majority (67.8%) of all births in 2005 were to married mothers (Figure 1.8).
Figure 1.8: Proportion of births by marital status of mothers, 1980–2005
Over the last three decades, there has been a steady increase in the age at which people marry and a decline in marriage rates. Some of the decline in fertility rates may be linked to these changes in marriage patterns.19
Net overseas migration
Net overseas migration is the excess of permanent and long term arrivals to Australia over permanent and long term departures from Australia. During the year ending 31 March 2006, net overseas migration added 134,500 people to the Australian population, an increase of 14% in net overseas migration over the previous year.2 Figure 1.9 shows a large net gain from migration of people under 30 years of age, and there was a net decrease of 934 men and 508 women in the 50-59 years age group. Net overseas migration added more males (68,987) than females (65,571) in all age groups except for those aged 20-29 and 60 years and over. Figure 1.10 shows that over the last 10 years, net overseas migration has added more men than women to Australia's population.
Figure 1.9: Net overseas migration by gender and age, 2005–06
Figure 1.10: Net overseas migration by gender, 1995–96 – 2005–06
Despite the younger ages of immigrants and the higher number of male immigrants, the impact of net overseas migration has little effect on the sex ratio and the ageing of Australia's population.20 McDonald and Kippen21 demonstrated that the first 80,000 net immigrants per year would substantially slow the ageing of the population, but at higher levels, there would be diminishing returns.
References
1. AusStats, 1901 Australian Snapshot, ABS Cat. No. 1301.0. Canberra: Australian Bureau of Statistics.
2. Australian Demographic Statistics June 2006 Quarter, ABS Cat. No. 3101.0. Canberra: Australian Bureau of Statistics.
3. Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2006, ABS Cat. No. 3105.0.65.001, Table 16, Indigenous population, age and sex, States and Territories, 30 June 2001 (2001 Census based).
4. Census of Population and Housing, Selected Social and Housing Characteristics, Australia, 2001, ABS Cat. No. 2015.0. Canberra: Australian Bureau of Statistics.
5. Population by Age and Sex, Australian States and Territories, June 2005, ABS Cat. No. 3201.0. Canberra: Australian Bureau of Statistics.
6. Migration Australia, ABS Cat. No. 3412.0. Australian Bureau of Statistics. Data available upon request.
7. 2001 Census of Population and Housing. Population Characteristics, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, ABS Cat. No. 4713.0. Canberra: Australian Bureau of Statistics.
8. Deaths, Australia, 2005, ABS Cat. No. 3302.0. Canberra: Australian Bureau of Statistics.
9. Australian Social Trends, 2004. ABS Cat. No. 4102.0. Canberra: Australian Bureau of Statistics.
10. Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2006, ABS Cat. No. 3105.0.65.001, Table 39.
11. Births, Australia, 2005. ABS Cat. No. 3301.0. Canberra: Australian Bureau of Statistics.
12. Merlo, R. & Rowland, D. (2000). 'The prevalence of childlessness in Australia'. People and Place, 8, (2), 21–32.
13. McDonald, P. (1998). 'Contemporary fertility patterns in Australia: First data from the 1996 Census'. People and Place, 6, (1), 1-13.
14. Australian Demographic Statistics September Quarter 1999, ABS Cat. No. 3101.0 and Births, Australia 1998, ABS Cat. No. 3301.0. Canberra: Australian Bureau of Statistics.
15. Australian Social Trends, 2005, ABS Cat. No. 4102.0. Canberra: Australian Bureau of Statistics.
16. Births, Australia, 2001, ABS Cat. No. 3301.0. Canberra: Australian Bureau of Statistics.
17. Year Book, Australia, 2006, ABS Cat. No. 1301.0. Canberra: Australian Bureau of Statistics.
18. Weston, R., Qu, L., Parker, R., & Alexander, M. (2004). 'It's not for lack of wanting kids…' A report on the Fertility Decision Making Project, Report No. 11. Australian Institute of Family Studies and the Australian Government Office for Women, Department of Family and Community Services.
19. DeVaus, D. (2002). 'Marriage, births and fertility'. Family Matters, 63, Spring/Summer, 36-39.
20. Migration, 2004-05, ABS Cat. No. 3412.0. Canberra: Australian Bureau of Statistics.
21. McDonald, P. & Kippen, R. (1999). The impact of immigration on the ageing of Australia's population. DIMA Discussion Paper, May. Canberra: Department of Immigration and Multicultural Affairs.